721
FXUS64 KBMX 182337
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE SAME
NORTH TO SOUTH MOVEMENT AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON IS GREATER THAN 3,000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LI AROUND -8 AND -9. THE WIND PROFILE IS FAIRLY WEAK, AND
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. PW VALUES AROUND MAX CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY
RAIN RATES AND TOTALS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS.
FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN IN THESE AREAS, AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON URBAN, SLOW DRAINAGE, AND LOW LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE,
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE
STORMS BUILD AND COLLAPSE, PRODUCING OUTFLOW AND SUB SEVERE HAIL.
CAMS HANDLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TERRIBLY, SO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
REFLECT GREATER COVERAGE THAN MODELS FORECAST.
BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER WEST AND LINGER SOUTH OF THE STATE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
LOCATION OF THIS LOW, WITH SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING A
STRENGTHENING OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST, WILL KEEP CHAOTIC WINDS OVER THE STATE, WITH A LIGHT WIND
PROFILE. INSTABILITY, PW, AND OTHER PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
THE SAME, WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE GULF, WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE STATE TRANSITIONING
TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST AROUND THIS LOW. THIS COULD
BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR, AS WELL AS INCREASED
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS
MOVING INTO THE STATE. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED MONDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHEAR IN THE SOUTHEAST.
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON WHAT
HAPPENS TO THAT LOW IN THE GULF. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME AND SWINGS A BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME A HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW MODELS HAVE THIS LOW IN THE
GULF WEAKENING AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE STATE AND
TOWARDS THAT BOUNDARY, WHILE OTHERS HAVE THE LOW MOVING WEST INTO
THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVING WITH THE FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE. EITHER WAY, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID WEEK. THE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BY THURSDAY.
NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR, WHICH WILL HELP THE HEAT THAT BUILDS IN FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. LOWEST HEAT INDICES COULD BE AROUND
105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
24
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 03Z
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS AT ANY SINGLE SITE
IS LOW; THEREFORE, NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL 18Z,
AFTER WHICH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE. CONSEQUENTLY, A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO ALL SITES FROM
18Z TO 00Z SUNDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 92 72 92 / 20 50 40 50
ANNISTON 73 92 73 92 / 20 50 40 40
BIRMINGHAM 75 94 75 93 / 30 50 40 40
TUSCALOOSA 75 95 75 94 / 20 40 40 30
CALERA 74 96 74 96 / 30 50 40 40
AUBURN 74 91 74 91 / 40 50 40 30
MONTGOMERY 74 94 74 94 / 40 50 40 30
TROY 72 91 72 92 / 50 60 30 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16
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