806
FXUS64 KBMX 190429
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1129 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
TRANSITIONING TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEK IS DEFINED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL DRIVE ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
ENCOUNTER A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG, SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST AS STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP
AND PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA.
ADDING COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST IS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (AL91) IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH
REMAINS A PRIMARY SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPLIT, THE LEADING SCENARIO SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN IN THE GULF, MAINTAINING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A PERIOD OF HEAT,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES PEAKING
NEAR 105 DEGREES. THIS PERIOD OF HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION, FUELED BY MONSOONAL MOISTURE. RELIEF
IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE,
INTRODUCING DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE BROADER CONVECTIVE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
LOCALIZED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE GULF
DISTURBANCE AND THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 03Z
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS AT ANY SINGLE SITE
IS LOW; THEREFORE, NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL 18Z,
AFTER WHICH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE. CONSEQUENTLY, A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO ALL SITES FROM
18Z TO 00Z SUNDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 91 73 93 / 0 60 40 60
ANNISTON 73 91 73 92 / 10 60 40 50
BIRMINGHAM 75 93 75 94 / 10 60 40 30
TUSCALOOSA 75 94 75 95 / 0 50 30 30
CALERA 74 94 74 96 / 10 60 40 30
AUBURN 74 90 74 91 / 50 60 30 30
MONTGOMERY 74 92 74 94 / 40 70 40 30
TROY 72 90 72 92 / 60 70 30 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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