917
FXUS64 KBMX 191845
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS: MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- TROPICAL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN
THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- HEAT: MINOR/MODERATE HEAT RISK SUNDAY, TRANSITIONING TO
MODERATE/MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES REACHING 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY THAT WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BUILDING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY THE THURSDAY TIME
FRAME.
TODAY, THE AREA IS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THAT HIGH WITH FLOW
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY, LAPSE RATES, AND LI
VALUES WILL BE HIGH, WITH A WIND PROFILE WEAK IN BOTH SHEAR AND
SPEED THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY STORMS THAT BUILD AND THEN COLLAPSE. WITH WEAK FLOW, THERE IS
A HIGH THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE 2-3" PER
HOUR. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE TRAINING AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS.
IN THE NORTHERN GULF, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CONTINUING TO
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS DEPRESSION IS FORECASTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN ROUGHLY THE MONDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST SLOWLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE ROUGHLY TO AN AREA SOUTH OF MS/LA.
FROM HERE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE LOW WILL MOVE, WITH
THE CURRENT PROJECTION OF MOVEMENT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. A LOT OF THAT MOVEMENT DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG
THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BECOMES AND HOW
FAR TO THE EAST THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IF
THAT HIGH WEAKENS AND STAYS FARTHER TO THE WEST, THE LOW MAY THEN
TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. IF THE HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND
MOVES ACROSS THE MS/AL REGION, THE LOW SHOULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD
TOWARDS TX.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT, THE IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND THE LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AROUND
THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIME, WITH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 20-30 KTS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS IS
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON HOW STRONG
THOSE WINDS WILL BE, BUT IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES
IT'S WEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK, THERE COULD DEFINITELY BE GUSTING
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST, CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. OTHERWISE, INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH STRONG
TO VERY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW SHOULD
THEN TURN TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, AND
HEAT INDICES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS SHOULD LOWER FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
24
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORM THAT MOVES OVER A TAF SITE. INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR OFF AND ON NATURE OF ACTIVITY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET, WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF THIS RAIN OUT DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE RAIN WILL OCCUR. ACTIVITY IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, LIKELY AT THE END OR AFTER
THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
24
FIRE WEATHER
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AL. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL AL. THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 93 74 94 / 20 30 10 10
ANNISTON 73 92 74 93 / 30 30 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 94 76 95 / 30 30 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 75 95 76 96 / 30 20 10 10
CALERA 74 96 75 97 / 20 20 10 10
AUBURN 73 91 75 91 / 10 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 73 95 75 94 / 20 10 10 20
TROY 72 93 73 91 / 20 20 10 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...24
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