539
FXUS64 KBMX 020607
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
107 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- HEAVY RAIN: THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE IN THE FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK, ANY
STRONG STORMS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL.
- LOWER HUMIDITY: SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE AREA, WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHILE BRIEF
LOCALIZED INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE, THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
PROBABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF THE I-22/I-59 CORRIDOR. A DEVELOPING
DRY SLOT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL YIELD IMPROVED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR INTO A TROUGH BEFORE REFORMING, LEADING
TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN PROBABILITIES FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BY MID-
WEEK, FAVORING A RETURN TO A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS DIMINISHING, WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN CURRENTLY IMPACTING BHM AND EET AND
EXITING BY 07Z. VCSH REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR MGM AND AUO
THROUGH 09-10Z, THOUGH PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POST-FRONTAL LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING AFTER 15-16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE REGION
SHIFTS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. KAUO REMAINS AMD NOT SKED DUE
TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH CONFIDENCE PERSISTS THAT MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
45 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE EAST BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TOWARD 40 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 68 87 69 / 20 10 60 10
ANNISTON 87 69 86 69 / 10 10 60 10
BIRMINGHAM 85 70 86 71 / 10 10 40 10
TUSCALOOSA 86 70 88 70 / 10 10 20 10
CALERA 86 69 88 70 / 0 10 40 10
AUBURN 87 71 85 72 / 20 10 40 10
MONTGOMERY 90 71 90 71 / 10 10 30 10
TROY 90 70 89 70 / 40 20 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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