227
FXUS64 KBMX 021754
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1254 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS THE AREA, WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY DECREASING OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHILE BRIEF
LOCALIZED INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE, THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
PROBABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF THE I-22/I-59 CORRIDOR. A DEVELOPING
DRY SLOT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL YIELD IMPROVED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR INTO A TROUGH BEFORE REFORMING, LEADING
TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN PROBABILITIES FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BY MID-
WEEK, FAVORING A RETURN TO A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS HAS CREATED A BIT OF A HEADACHE IN
THE CEILING FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CEILING HEIGHTS AND
COVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING MORE UNIFORM IN THE NORTH, AND THE
18Z TAFS REFLECT THAT TREND. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LARGELY DISSIPATE AROUND
00Z-01Z THIS EVENING. MY CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL, HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE MODELS SISN'T EXACTLY HANDLE THE
ONGOING CLOUDINESS VERY WELL TO BEGIN WITH. CONDITIONS COULD VERY
WELL STAY VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT IT MAY
END UP BEING MORE OF A 3500-4000 FT CEILING VFR VS A SKC OR FEW080
OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
SUGGEST A REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (TCL, BHM, EET). WILL ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE
THERE'S A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, CHANCE OF CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW
1000 FT TONIGHT AS WELL.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH CONFIDENCE PERSISTS THAT MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
45 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER IN
FROM THE EAST BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TOWARD 40 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 87 68 89 / 10 40 10 60
ANNISTON 68 85 69 87 / 10 40 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 69 86 69 89 / 10 30 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 69 88 70 91 / 10 10 0 10
CALERA 68 88 69 90 / 0 20 10 30
AUBURN 69 85 71 86 / 0 20 10 60
MONTGOMERY 69 89 70 91 / 0 20 10 20
TROY 69 88 69 90 / 10 10 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../61/
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