794
FXUS64 KBMX 021936
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS PROVIDING THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW, CENTERED INITIALLY IN NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS A BIT TO
OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE
BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE EAST.
ULTIMATELY, THE LOW WEAKENS/FILLS AND FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY
THE WESTERLIES AND EJECTS TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THAT PUTS US IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMES, ONE CENTERED
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED IN THE ROCKIES. AS
A RESULT, CONDITIONS HERE THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHOULD BE REMARKABLY UNREMARKABLE, WITH TEMPERATURES AND POPS VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AREA OF WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS HAS CREATED A BIT OF A HEADACHE IN
THE CEILING FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CEILING HEIGHTS AND
COVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE BECOMING MORE UNIFORM IN THE NORTH, AND THE
18Z TAFS REFLECT THAT TREND. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LARGELY DISSIPATE AROUND
00Z-01Z THIS EVENING. MY CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL, HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE MODELS SISN'T EXACTLY HANDLE THE
ONGOING CLOUDINESS VERY WELL TO BEGIN WITH. CONDITIONS COULD VERY
WELL STAY VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT IT MAY
END UP BEING MORE OF A 3500-4000 FT CEILING VFR VS A SKC OR FEW080
OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE FORECASTS ALSO
SUGGEST A REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (TCL, BHM, EET). WILL ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE
THERE'S A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, CHANCE OF CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW
1000 FT TONIGHT AS WELL.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH CONFIDENCE PERSISTS THAT MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
45 PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER IN
FROM THE EAST BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TOWARD 40 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 87 68 89 / 10 40 10 60
ANNISTON 68 85 69 87 / 10 40 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 69 86 69 89 / 10 30 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 69 88 70 91 / 10 10 0 10
CALERA 68 88 69 90 / 0 20 10 30
AUBURN 69 85 71 86 / 0 20 10 60
MONTGOMERY 69 89 70 91 / 0 20 10 20
TROY 69 88 69 90 / 10 10 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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