265
FXUS64 KBMX 022335
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS, WILL PROVIDE NOTABLE RELIEF FROM THE RECENT
HEAT FOR THOSE OUTDOORS.
- WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERNS,
INCLUDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS,
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS PROVIDING THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF INTO ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW, CENTERED INITIALLY IN NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS A BIT TO
OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE
BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE EAST.
ULTIMATELY, THE LOW WEAKENS/FILLS AND FINALLY GETS PICKED UP BY
THE WESTERLIES AND EJECTS TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THAT PUTS US IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMES, ONE CENTERED
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED IN THE ROCKIES. AS
A RESULT, CONDITIONS HERE THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHOULD BE REMARKABLY UNREMARKABLE, WITH TEMPERATURES AND POPS VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH CLOUDS
REMAIN BROKEN TO OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH (BHM, EET, TCL) DUE TO
CYCLONIC WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. IN
CONTRAST, MGM AND AUO REMAIN IN A DRIER, SUBSIDENT SLOT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CLOUD COVER. CURRENT BASES RANGE FROM 4 TO
6 KFT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 06Z, AFTER WHICH
LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. ACCORDINGLY, MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AT BHM, EET, AND TCL.
GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS ON LOWER-LEVEL SATURATION, I HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR THESE NORTHERN SITES FROM 10Z TO 13Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 45 PERCENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE DRIER AIR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PUSHING HUMIDITY
LEVELS DOWN TOWARD 40 PERCENT, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 87 68 89 / 10 40 10 60
ANNISTON 68 85 69 87 / 10 40 10 60
BIRMINGHAM 69 86 69 89 / 10 30 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 69 88 70 91 / 10 10 0 10
CALERA 68 88 69 90 / 0 20 10 30
AUBURN 70 85 71 86 / 0 20 10 60
MONTGOMERY 71 89 70 91 / 0 20 10 20
TROY 70 88 69 90 / 10 10 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...16
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