116
FXUS64 KBMX 030628
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
128 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS, OFFERING RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERNS, FEATURING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A DRY SLOT HAS IMPROVED CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS. WE HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH GEORGIA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY IN EASTERN AREAS,
THROUGH MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
DOWNWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER INHIBITS FULL
SUN AND AFTERNOON HEATING.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD,
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
TRANSITION WILL LEAVE ALABAMA POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, RESULTING IN SEASONAL WEEKEND CONDITIONS WHERE
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES ALIGN CLOSELY WITH
HISTORICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHWARD WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT 3 TO
4 HOURS. PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
BHM AND EET, WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE LOWER
STRATUS IN FOR TCL. OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS. THE LATEST
FORECAST RETAINED THE PREVIOUS TEMPO IFR CEILINGS FOR BHM AND EET
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z. WHILE RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
MAY BE PESSIMISTIC, THE TEMPO GROUP IS INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONTINUED SIGNAL OF LOW STRATUS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. LOWER
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO MIX OUT BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PLANNING PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 7 AND 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 45 PERCENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE DRIER AIR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PUSHING HUMIDITY
LEVELS DOWN TOWARD 40 PERCENT, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 87 68 89 70 / 30 10 50 20
ANNISTON 86 68 88 70 / 30 10 50 20
BIRMINGHAM 86 69 89 71 / 20 10 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 88 70 91 72 / 10 0 20 0
CALERA 88 69 90 70 / 20 10 30 10
AUBURN 85 71 87 72 / 20 10 50 20
MONTGOMERY 90 71 92 72 / 20 10 30 10
TROY 89 70 91 71 / 20 10 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...56/GDG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page