702
FXUS64 KBMX 031733
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95-100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK, POSING A MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
- MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A CUTOFF LOW WILL SUPPORT DAILY SHOWERS
AND STORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS DAILY, GENERALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. BY THURSDAY,
THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A COL PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE OUR "COOLEST" DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WE START TO WARM BACK
UP BY MID WEEK WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE
RANGE WHICH WILL POSE A MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
OTHERWISE, THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST RAP13 GUIDANCE HINTS AT POCKETS OF
NARROWING DEW POINTS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 1-
3MB, MAINLY EAST OF I-65. THOSE THAT SEE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT TCL. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE RAIN
TODAY. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING, WE COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FROM 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITION WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-65.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 89 70 89 / 10 50 20 70
ANNISTON 68 88 70 88 / 10 60 30 70
BIRMINGHAM 70 89 72 89 / 10 30 20 40
TUSCALOOSA 70 90 72 91 / 0 10 10 20
CALERA 69 90 71 90 / 10 30 10 40
AUBURN 71 86 72 86 / 10 50 20 50
MONTGOMERY 70 91 72 92 / 10 20 10 30
TROY 69 90 70 91 / 10 20 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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