970
FXUS64 KBMX 040421
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1121 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE
MID-WEEK, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY; ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITION BY
THURSDAY, AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO BUILD.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA IS BEGINNING TO GET SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE START TO WARM BACK UP WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE WHICH WILL POSE A MODERATE HEAT RISK
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1-3 MILES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
THESE VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON MORNING SURFACE TRAVEL.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE,
WITH LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WNW 5-10 KT THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 45 PERCENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE DRIER AIR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PUSHING HUMIDITY
LEVELS DOWN TOWARD 40 PERCENT, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 89 69 90 / 10 60 20 70
ANNISTON 68 88 70 88 / 10 60 30 70
BIRMINGHAM 70 88 71 89 / 0 50 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 70 90 72 92 / 0 10 10 10
CALERA 69 89 71 90 / 0 40 20 40
AUBURN 71 85 72 87 / 10 50 20 60
MONTGOMERY 71 91 72 93 / 10 20 10 30
TROY 69 89 70 91 / 10 20 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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