088
FXUS64 KBMX 041134
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE
MID-WEEK, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY; ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITION BY
THURSDAY, AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO BUILD.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA IS BEGINNING TO GET SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A 30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY, WE START TO WARM BACK UP WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE WHICH WILL POSE A MODERATE HEAT RISK
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1-3 MILES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
THESE VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON MORNING SURFACE TRAVEL.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS
MORNING, BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WE COULD SEE A FEW OBS COME IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS, BUT THOSE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AT ALL. DUE TO THE CURRENT TRENDS, ONLY
SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR KAUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 45 PERCENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE DRIER AIR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PUSHING HUMIDITY
LEVELS DOWN TOWARD 40 PERCENT, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 89 69 90 70 / 60 20 70 10
ANNISTON 88 70 88 71 / 60 30 70 10
BIRMINGHAM 88 71 89 72 / 50 20 50 10
TUSCALOOSA 90 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 0
CALERA 89 71 90 72 / 40 20 40 0
AUBURN 85 72 87 73 / 50 20 60 10
MONTGOMERY 91 72 93 73 / 20 10 30 0
TROY 89 70 91 71 / 20 10 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...56/GDG
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