504
FXUS64 KBMX 042341
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE
MID-WEEK, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY; ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CHURNING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
MUCH OF ALABAMA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CLOSER TO THE GA/AL STATELINE. GOES TPW
SUPPORTS THIS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.7". THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY
THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH, EVENTUALLY BEING
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO 3-5MB, THERE IS A 20-45% CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING . AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME RAIN LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO HAVE
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT THE DOOR TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE WHICH WILL POSE A MODERATE HEAT RISK
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z; NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT SITES THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FROM 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR BHM, EET, AND AUO
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE (30-50%) IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT TAF LOCATIONS, A PROB30 GROUP WAS INTRODUCED FOR
BHM, EET, AND AUO AFTER 18Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-
65. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 89 71 91 / 20 60 10 30
ANNISTON 70 88 71 90 / 20 60 10 40
BIRMINGHAM 72 89 72 91 / 20 40 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 72 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 20
CALERA 71 90 72 92 / 20 30 10 30
AUBURN 72 86 73 88 / 20 40 10 30
MONTGOMERY 72 92 73 93 / 10 20 10 20
TROY 71 91 71 91 / 10 20 10 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...16
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