282
FXUS64 KBMX 050425
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE
MID-WEEK, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY; ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST,
WHILE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST, CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW AND ITS WRAP-AROUND. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A 20-
60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
NORTH, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT,
LEADING TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH MAX HEAT INDICES TO 95-
100 DEGREES, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z; NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT SITES THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FROM 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR BHM, EET, AND AUO
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE (30-50%) IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT TAF LOCATIONS, A PROB30 GROUP WAS INTRODUCED FOR
BHM, EET, AND AUO AFTER 18Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-
65. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 90 71 92 / 10 60 20 50
ANNISTON 70 88 71 90 / 10 60 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 72 89 73 91 / 10 40 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 72 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 20
CALERA 71 90 72 92 / 10 30 20 30
AUBURN 72 88 73 89 / 10 40 20 30
MONTGOMERY 72 93 74 94 / 10 30 20 30
TROY 71 92 72 92 / 10 30 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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