303
FXUS64 KBMX 051723
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE
RANGE MID-WEEK, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST,
WHILE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST, CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW AND ITS WRAP-AROUND. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A 20-
60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY THURSDAY, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
NORTH, EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETS UP THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT,
LEADING TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH MAX HEAT INDICES TO 95-
100 DEGREES, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK TROUGH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, KEEPING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THANKFULLY, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE,
AND MAINLY LIMITED TO EAST OF I-65. AS SUCH, BHM, EET, AND AUO
WILL ALL CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA THROUGH 06/01Z, WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-
65. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 90 71 91 / 10 50 10 30
ANNISTON 71 88 71 90 / 10 50 10 30
BIRMINGHAM 73 89 73 90 / 0 30 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 73 92 74 93 / 0 20 10 20
CALERA 72 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30
AUBURN 72 87 72 88 / 10 30 20 30
MONTGOMERY 74 92 73 93 / 10 30 10 20
TROY 72 91 71 92 / 10 30 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION.../44/
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