396
FXUS64 KBMX 051852
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
152 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE
RANGE MID-WEEK, CREATING A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
A RATHER MUNDANE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, LEADING TO A MOSTLY "COPY/PASTE" STYLE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY TOMORROW, THE STAGNANT LOW OFF TO
OUR NE WILL FINALLY GET ABSORBED BACK INTO ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ONCE WE LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE, A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR OUR RAIN ACTIVITY.
THANKFULLY, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STABLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AS NO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS ABLE TO
REALLY ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID-90S, WITH HUMID CONDITIONS PUSHING HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES. WHILE HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED, THE NEED FOR HEAT PRODUCTS IS CURRENTLY
LITTLE TO NONE, AS WE EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK TROUGH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, KEEPING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THANKFULLY, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE,
AND MAINLY LIMITED TO EAST OF I-65. AS SUCH, BHM, EET, AND AUO
WILL ALL CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA THROUGH 06/01Z, WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF I-
65. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
LITTLE TO NONE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 90 71 91 / 10 50 10 30
ANNISTON 71 88 71 90 / 10 50 10 30
BIRMINGHAM 73 89 73 90 / 0 30 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 73 92 74 93 / 0 20 10 20
CALERA 72 91 72 91 / 0 30 10 30
AUBURN 72 87 72 88 / 10 30 20 30
MONTGOMERY 74 92 73 93 / 10 30 10 20
TROY 72 91 71 92 / 10 30 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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