040
FXUS64 KBMX 061747
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE
RANGE THURSDAY AND INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. WE'LL
REMAIN SITUATED UNDER A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR NORTH, AND A RIDGE TO
OUR WEST, WITH NO REAL FEATURE ABLE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE PRIMARY RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO
ORIENT ITSELF MORE TOWARDS THE SE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT
FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN THE LACK OF AN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN
THE LOW TO MID-90S, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING
BELOW ANY TYPE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR HEAT HEADLINES. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL STILL FEEL INCREDIBLY WARM OUTSIDE, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 100-104 FOR MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ALL TERMINALS SANS MGM CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA PAST
07/01Z. HAZE HAS ALSO SETTLED BACK ACROSS THE REGION, WITH EET
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORY DUE TO REDUCED VIS BECAUSE OF
IT. OTHERWISE, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED PAST 07/09Z AT AUO, WHERE
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF EET AND AUO, TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 91 71 91 / 10 40 20 50
ANNISTON 70 89 71 90 / 20 40 20 40
BIRMINGHAM 72 90 73 90 / 10 30 10 40
TUSCALOOSA 73 93 74 93 / 0 20 10 40
CALERA 71 91 72 92 / 20 30 10 40
AUBURN 72 87 73 88 / 30 30 10 30
MONTGOMERY 73 92 74 93 / 30 20 10 20
TROY 71 91 72 92 / 30 20 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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