782
FXUS64 KBMX 070029
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
729 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 98-104 DEGREE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. WE'LL
REMAIN SITUATED UNDER A WEAK TROUGH TO OUR NORTH, AND A RIDGE TO
OUR WEST, WITH NO REAL FEATURE ABLE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE
REGION. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE PRIMARY RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO
ORIENT ITSELF MORE TOWARDS THE SE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT
FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN THE LACK OF AN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN
THE LOW TO MID-90S, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING
BELOW ANY TYPE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR HEAT HEADLINES. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL STILL FEEL INCREDIBLY WARM OUTSIDE, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 100-104 FOR MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER PAST
SUNSET TONIGHT THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. I HAVE
PROB30S AT MGM/AUO WHERE CHANCES ARE BEST THROUGH 4Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. EET CONTINUES TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HAZE AND WILL HAVE A
MVFR MENTION HERE FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO AUO FROM THE EAST
TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS PROGRESSION
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MENTION AT ANY OTHER SITES. MORE DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 91 71 91 / 20 30 20 50
ANNISTON 70 89 71 90 / 20 40 20 40
BIRMINGHAM 72 90 73 90 / 20 30 20 40
TUSCALOOSA 73 93 74 93 / 30 20 20 40
CALERA 71 91 72 92 / 20 30 20 40
AUBURN 72 87 73 88 / 30 30 10 30
MONTGOMERY 73 92 74 93 / 30 30 10 20
TROY 71 91 72 92 / 30 20 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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