229
FXUS64 KBMX 070501
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 97-104 DEGREE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THIS EVENING, CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS IN A WEAK UPPER FLOW AREA
SOUTH OF THE MAIN BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OUT OF A CENTRAL
CANADA LOW AND DOWN INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME, ALABAMA IS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, ONE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AND THE OTHER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF OF THE VA/NC
COAST WITH ONLY MINOR PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSING THE WEAK FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION, BUT THAT IS ALSO AT TIMES OUTFLOW
DRIVEN. BY MONDAY, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FLATTENS AND
RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY ONWARD WILL BE THAT OF A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
ORIENTATION OF THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FROM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY,
BUT IT WOULD STILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS DO VARY A DEGREE OR SO HERE AND
THERE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINING UP. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER IN SPOTS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP US BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
08
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER PAST
SUNSET TONIGHT THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. I HAVE
PROB30S AT MGM/AUO WHERE CHANCES ARE BEST THROUGH 4Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. EET CONTINUES TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HAZE AND WILL HAVE A
MVFR MENTION HERE FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
SOME LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO AUO FROM THE EAST
TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS PROGRESSION
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MENTION AT ANY OTHER SITES. MORE DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 90 71 91 / 20 40 20 50
ANNISTON 70 89 71 90 / 20 40 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 72 90 73 91 / 20 40 20 40
TUSCALOOSA 73 92 74 92 / 20 20 20 40
CALERA 71 90 72 92 / 20 40 20 40
AUBURN 72 87 73 88 / 40 30 10 30
MONTGOMERY 73 92 73 93 / 40 20 20 30
TROY 71 90 72 92 / 40 20 10 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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