647
FXUS64 KBMX 080053
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
753 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 97-104 DEGREE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
"COPY/PASTE" PATTERN, AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES TO OUR WEST, EAST, AND NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED ROUNDS OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH NOTHING MORE ORGANIZED IN THE FORECAST. BY
MONDAY, THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, AS A DEEP
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH TO REORIENT ITSELF, TAKING A MORE
NW TO SE SHAPE. WHILE THIS WON'T HAVE ANY IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON OUR
AREA, THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL START TO BECOME SUPPRESSED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHERE RAIN CHANCES MAY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE, AS THIS SLIGHT TRANSITION WOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO RIDE THE TROUGH, CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. UNFORTUNATELY, CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOW, AS ANY SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WOULD RESULT IN VERY DIFFERENT
RESULTS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID-90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
REMAINING UNDER CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS IN A
FEW SPOTS. I HAVE A TEMPO ONLY FOR EET TOWARD SUNRISE AT THIS
TIME. WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST, WINDS WILL BE E-SE 4-8KTS
AROUND IT WITH MIXING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MORE DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, SO I HAVE PROB30S
FOR TCL/BHM/EET TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 91 72 93 / 20 30 20 30
ANNISTON 71 90 71 91 / 20 30 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 72 90 74 91 / 20 30 20 30
TUSCALOOSA 73 92 74 93 / 20 40 20 30
CALERA 72 91 73 92 / 20 30 20 30
AUBURN 73 88 73 88 / 20 20 20 40
MONTGOMERY 73 93 74 93 / 20 20 20 30
TROY 72 91 72 91 / 20 20 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...08
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