410
FXUS64 KBMX 081132
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 97-104 DEGREE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT WEAK UPPER FLOW AREA SOUTH
OF THE MAIN BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME, ALABAMA IS SITUATED
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, ONE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE OTHER IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF OF THE FL COAST. THE DIFFERENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THAT GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A SMALL DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THIS WILL NOT MAKE A
HUGE DIFFERENCE, IT SHOULD ORIENT OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH AREAS FOR SAT/SUN. OUR EMPHASIS WILL STILL BE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVERALL. BY
MONDAY, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES
FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
IT ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WITH JUST CONTINUED SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ENHANCED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS VARY ONLY A DEGREE OR SO HERE AND
THERE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINING UP. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER IN SPOTS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP US
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
ISOLATED MVFR FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY AT EET THROUGH 13Z. WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST,
WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS AROUND IT WITH MIXING
DURING THE DAY. MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, SO I HAVE CONTINUED WITH PROB30 AT TCL, BHM, AND EET TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 71 92 73 / 40 20 50 30
ANNISTON 91 71 91 73 / 30 20 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 50 20
TUSCALOOSA 92 73 92 74 / 40 20 50 20
CALERA 92 73 92 73 / 30 20 40 10
AUBURN 89 73 88 74 / 30 20 40 10
MONTGOMERY 93 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 10
TROY 93 73 92 72 / 20 20 50 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...16
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