652
FXUS64 KBMX 081743
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 97-104 DEGREE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT WEAK UPPER FLOW AREA SOUTH
OF THE MAIN BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME, ALABAMA IS SITUATED
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, ONE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE OTHER IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF OF THE FL COAST. THE DIFFERENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THAT GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A SMALL DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THIS WILL NOT MAKE A
HUGE DIFFERENCE, IT SHOULD ORIENT OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH AREAS FOR SAT/SUN. OUR EMPHASIS WILL STILL BE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVERALL. BY
MONDAY, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES
FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
IT ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WITH JUST CONTINUED SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ENHANCED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS VARY ONLY A DEGREE OR SO HERE AND
THERE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINING UP. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER IN SPOTS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP US
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MOST TERMINALS ARE ONCE AGAIN CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA, AS
THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE PAST
09/01Z. LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09/08-14Z AT EET AND AUO,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WILL RESULT IN LEAVING THE LOW CIGS OUT OF ANY
FM GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 92 73 91 / 20 30 20 50
ANNISTON 71 91 72 90 / 20 30 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 73 91 74 90 / 20 30 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 73 93 75 92 / 20 40 20 40
CALERA 72 92 73 91 / 20 30 20 40
AUBURN 73 88 73 88 / 10 30 20 30
MONTGOMERY 74 93 74 93 / 10 40 20 40
TROY 72 92 72 92 / 10 30 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/
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