231
FXUS64 KBMX 081848
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- SUMMER PATTERN: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY UNDER
HIGH MOISTURE AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS.
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 97-104 DEGREE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THIS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. PWAT VALUES REMAIN QUITE HIGH, SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY, AS
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST STARTS TO BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED BY THE
TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. AT THIS TIME, THE RIDGE APPEARS TO SLIDE
WEST, REESTABLISHING ITSELF ALONG THE GULF COAST, REMAINING OVER
THE GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
ONCE MORE BY THURSDAY, AS THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH DROPS SOUTH
ONCE AGAIN. GENERALLY, THIS WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT
LIMIT IT TO THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. MORE
ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOW SINCE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE LOW TO
MID-90S, WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING HIGH. BECAUSE OF THAT, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO REACH TRIPLE-DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MOST TERMINALS ARE ONCE AGAIN CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA, AS
THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. GIVEN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE PAST
09/01Z. LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09/08-14Z AT EET AND AUO,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WILL RESULT IN LEAVING THE LOW CIGS OUT OF ANY
FM GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 92 73 91 / 20 30 20 50
ANNISTON 71 91 72 90 / 20 30 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 73 91 74 90 / 20 30 20 50
TUSCALOOSA 73 93 75 92 / 20 40 20 40
CALERA 72 92 73 91 / 20 30 20 40
AUBURN 73 88 73 88 / 10 30 20 30
MONTGOMERY 74 93 74 93 / 10 40 20 40
TROY 72 92 72 92 / 10 30 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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