093
FXUS64 KBMX 090526
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1226 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- SUMMER PATTERN: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW-
MOVING STORMS.
- HEAT: HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 97-104 DEGREE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT WEAK UPPER FLOW AREA SOUTH
OF THE MAIN BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME, ALABAMA IS SITUATED
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, ONE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE OTHER IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF OF THE FL COAST ALONG WITH A WEAK, SMALL
SHORTWAVE FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR NW. THIS WILL NOT
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ACROSS THE SE US AS IT
REMAINS WEAK. OUR EMPHASIS WILL STILL BE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVERALL. BY MONDAY, THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, IT ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH CONTINUED
SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY ENHANCED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, READINGS VARY ONLY A DEGREE OR SO HERE AND
THERE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINING UP. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER IN SPOTS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP US
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. WE WILL BE WATCHING AS WE
HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING INTO AND GETTING STRONGER ACROSS THE SE US AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING FURTHER. THIS COULD INCH US BACK CLOSER TO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
08
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AT ALL SITES. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN A FEW SPOTS, SO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
INCLUDED FOR EET AND AUO NEAR SUNRISE. WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE
EAST, WINDS WILL BE EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS WITH DAYTIME MIXING,
THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN SITES, WARRANTING CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS FOR TCL, BHM,
AND EET, WITH TIMING ADJUSTED FOR DELAYED DEVELOPMENT. INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO MGM AND AUO
AFTER 21Z WARRANT THE ADDITION OF PROB30 GROUPS FOR THESE SITES
AS WELL.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP MINRH VALUES GENERALLY
ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY. BECAUSE OF THIS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 73 92 73 / 30 20 50 10
ANNISTON 91 72 90 73 / 40 20 50 10
BIRMINGHAM 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 50 10
TUSCALOOSA 93 74 93 75 / 30 20 40 10
CALERA 92 73 91 74 / 40 20 40 10
AUBURN 89 74 89 75 / 30 20 40 10
MONTGOMERY 94 74 94 75 / 30 20 30 10
TROY 92 72 93 73 / 30 20 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...16
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