269
FXUS64 KBMX 230016
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
716 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 105
DEGREES.
- STORMS: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE WEST. DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 1.2" PER THE LATEST GOES TPW. THIS DRY
AIR COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP PROMOTE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT SAID, SEVERAL CAMS
BRING A LINE OF CONVECTION INTO THE STATE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ROTATES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, GENERALLY AFTER 7 PM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT, SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE BETWEEN A RIDGE
PARKED OUT TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. A STALLED
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. BY
MID WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHILE SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE LOW TO MODERATE
(30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR MOST. DRIER AIR WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK,
GENERALLY 95-102 DEGREES. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
NEXT WEEK WILL HELP TRIM OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AT TIMES. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A
LOW TO MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR MOST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THERE IS
CURRENTLY STRONG TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS N MS MOVING SEWD TOWARD AL
AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM OF
ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER TO ADD TO NRN TAFS (TCL/BHM/EET) AS THEY
SHOULD DECREASE AS THEY APPROACH. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY FOR
ANY NEEDED AMENDMENTS FOR TS. OTHERWISE, COULD SEE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SRN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AS BOUNDARY
MOVES SEWD INTO STATE, SO I HAVE PROB30S FOR MGM/AUO AFTER 21Z.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
WNW-NW 4-8KTS WITH MIXING ON SUNDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE,
AND AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND FOR EET DUE TO A VISIBILITY SENSOR
OUTAGE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (35 TO 45%) FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND INTO THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 92 67 91 / 20 20 10 10
ANNISTON 70 91 67 89 / 20 20 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 73 93 71 90 / 20 20 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 73 96 72 91 / 20 20 20 30
CALERA 72 94 71 90 / 20 20 20 30
AUBURN 72 92 71 88 / 0 30 20 30
MONTGOMERY 73 97 73 93 / 0 30 20 40
TROY 70 97 71 92 / 0 30 20 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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