226
FXUS64 KBMX 231747
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 105
DEGREES.
- STORMS: THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OUT
TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CAN BE ANALYZED DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
LINGER CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MEANWHILE, A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, HELPING TO TRIGGER A FEW BOUTS OF CONVECTION,
GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AS A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS WILL HELP KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AT BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AMPLE
INSTABILITY, HIGH DCAPE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM. THEREFORE,
SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHILE SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE LOW TO MODERATE
(30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S FOR MOST. DRIER AIR WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK,
GENERALLY 95-102 DEGREES. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
NEXT WEEK WILL HELP TRIM OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AT TIMES. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A MODERATE
HEAT RISK FOR MOST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT, CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30 MENTION AT AUO/MGM
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE,
AND AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND FOR EET DUE TO A VISIBILITY SENSOR
OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (35 TO 45%) FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
BEGINS TO RETURN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 66 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 92 70 92 / 0 10 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 72 95 72 94 / 10 10 30 30
CALERA 70 93 70 92 / 0 10 20 10
AUBURN 72 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 73 95 72 95 / 10 20 40 20
TROY 72 95 70 93 / 10 30 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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