148
FXUS64 KBMX 232352
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES.
- STORMS: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS OUT
TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CAN BE ANALYZED DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
LINGER CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MEANWHILE, A FEW IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, HELPING TO TRIGGER A FEW BOUTS OF CONVECTION,
GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AS A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS WILL HELP KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AT BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AMPLE
INSTABILITY, HIGH DCAPE AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM. THEREFORE,
SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY MID WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHILE SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE LOW TO MODERATE
(30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S FOR MOST. DRIER AIR WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK,
GENERALLY 95-102 DEGREES. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
NEXT WEEK WILL HELP TRIM OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AT TIMES. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT A MODERATE
HEAT RISK FOR MOST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ON RADAR. ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH
FOR A PROB30 MENTION FOR MGM THROUGH 3Z ATTM, BUT WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE REST. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF C AL WITH OUR SURFACE
BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF AL.
THUS, ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR MENTIONS AT TCL/MGM DURING THE DAY
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WNW-NW 4-8KTS WITH MIXING ON
MONDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR MAY BE SLOW TO VACATE THE AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY
POSSIBLE FOR LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (35 TO 45%)
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY BEGINS AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 91 66 92 / 10 0 0 10
ANNISTON 66 90 66 91 / 10 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 70 92 70 92 / 10 20 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 72 95 72 94 / 10 30 20 20
CALERA 70 93 70 92 / 20 30 10 10
AUBURN 72 91 71 90 / 20 20 10 0
MONTGOMERY 73 95 72 95 / 20 30 20 10
TROY 72 95 70 93 / 20 30 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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