694
FXUS64 KBMX 241124
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES.
- STORMS: THERE IS LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE RADAR IS CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
ONLY A FEW STORMS NEAR THE GULF COAST. OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY OF
LATE HAS PROGRESSED TODAY TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF ALABAMA AND
HAS STALLED. IT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LOW IS
PRESENT OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MUCH OF EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS ALSO
A LARGE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA TO TEXAS. THIS LEAVES
CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WAVES OF CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY, GENERALLY
IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH HEATING, MORE SO
TOWARD THE COAST. ON TUESDAY, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD BEFORE FIZZLING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ASSIST IN ANOTHER FRONT MAKING IT INTO
THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SLIGHTLY HIGHER STORM
CHANCES IN THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. GUIDANCE WITH THIS LATE WEEK FRONT HAS IT LIKELY
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS WELL NEXT WEEKEND.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST, A FEW UPPER LOWS ROTATE
THROUGH THE CURRENT TROUGH AREA OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES WITH VARYING DEGREES OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO EASTERN
CONUS, BUT OVERALL SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING REMAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK. OUR SOUTHWEST US RIDGE REMAINS AS WELL UNTIL
FRIDAY. THE DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE IS THAT WE COULD
SEE AN EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHER POPS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BUT BY NEXT WEEKEND WE COULD SEE A WARMING TREND IF THE RIDGE
EXPANDS.
08
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN GREATER
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
SUPPORTS ONLY A PROB30 GROUP AT MGM THROUGH 25/01Z FOR TSRA.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR MAY BE SLOW TO VACATE THE AREA WITH ONE MORE DAY
POSSIBLE FOR LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (35 TO 45%)
FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY BEGINS AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
ANNISTON 91 66 91 67 / 10 0 0 10
BIRMINGHAM 92 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 95 72 95 72 / 20 10 10 10
CALERA 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 90 71 90 71 / 20 20 10 10
MONTGOMERY 95 72 94 71 / 30 20 20 10
TROY 94 70 93 70 / 30 20 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION.../44/
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