904
FXUS64 KBMX 250045
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- HEAT: MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES.
- STORMS: THERE IS LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING TO THE SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN A TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE OUT TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS WE WARM UP THROUGH THE DAY,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE
IS LOW RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AS STORMS MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
THEREFORE, SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY TUESDAY, SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE STATE. BEFORE IT BEGINS ITS JOURNEY, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF ALABAMA.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, HIGH PWATS (AROUND 2")
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM, LEADING TO ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
BY MID WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHILE SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE LOW TO MODERATE
(30-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR MOST. DRIER AIR WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK,
GENERALLY 95-102 DEGREES. CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT
A LOW TO MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR MOST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING (9-13Z) AT EET/MGM/AUO. THERE IS ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MGM/AUO. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG THE COAST. WILL FORGO A PROB30 MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY 4-
8 KTS WITH MIXING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
08
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO VACATE THE AREA WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 35 TO 50% FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 66 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 30
ANNISTON 66 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 30
BIRMINGHAM 70 93 72 93 / 0 10 10 30
TUSCALOOSA 72 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 40
CALERA 70 94 71 93 / 0 10 10 30
AUBURN 71 92 72 91 / 0 20 10 30
MONTGOMERY 72 96 72 96 / 10 20 10 30
TROY 71 95 71 94 / 10 40 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...08
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