525
FXUS64 KBMX 252353
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
653 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- STORMS: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SCATTERED ON
WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION TODAY. ASIDE FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHERE A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PWAT VALUES
INSUFFICIENT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
VERY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ENHANCED BY MCS ACTIVITY,
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT AND
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY REGARDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD PLACE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 59 ON FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TREND LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
SHEARS OUT AND THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WEAKENS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
A WARMING TREND IF THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AS
INDICATED BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.
87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE PRIMARY RISK FOR TERMINAL IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY COMES
WITH A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY FROM
18Z ONWARD, THOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 15Z
IN THE VICINITY OF TCL. IN THE ABSENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
A SECONDARY RISK INVOLVES THE LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITY FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG AT MGM AND/OR AUO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT IS EXCLUDED FROM THE CURRENT TAF GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS
TODAY, BUT WARRANTS MONITORING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH RH VALUES RANGING FROM 35 TO
50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 68 94 71 90 / 0 20 40 70
ANNISTON 68 93 71 88 / 0 20 30 70
BIRMINGHAM 71 94 73 89 / 0 30 40 70
TUSCALOOSA 72 96 73 90 / 0 30 50 70
CALERA 71 94 72 89 / 0 30 40 80
AUBURN 72 91 73 87 / 0 20 20 80
MONTGOMERY 73 96 74 92 / 0 20 20 80
TROY 71 94 72 91 / 10 30 20 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87/GRANTHAM
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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