725
FXUS64 KBMX 260441
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- STORMS: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A FEW AREAS OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND NIGHTTIME STABILITY WILL
PROMOTE FAIR-WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERALL, SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SPARSE OCCURRENCE OF SHORT-LIVED
SHOWERS TONIGHT, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES; NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT, JUST A DON'T-BE-SURPRISED MENTION.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE
WILL EXIST THANKS TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES TO
MEANDER ACROSS ALABAMA AND ITS VICINITY. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND AN
INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM AFTERNOON TO EVENING. ENSEMBLE
DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCATTERED COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO DECREASE AS 500 MB RIDGING
BECOMES A BIT MORE DEFINED.
NO TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ARE NOTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
FEATURING SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS ALONGSIDE MUGGINESS.
89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE PRIMARY RISK FOR TERMINAL IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY COMES WITH
A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY FROM 18Z
ONWARD, THOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 15Z IN
THE VICINITY OF TCL. IN THE ABSENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
A SECONDARY RISK INVOLVES THE LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITY FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG AT MGM AND/OR AUO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IT IS EXCLUDED FROM THE CURRENT TAF GIVEN DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY,
BUT WARRANTS MONITORING.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
89^GSATTERWHITE
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM ARE
FORECAST TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 69 93 70 91 / 0 30 20 50
ANNISTON 68 91 70 89 / 0 20 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 72 92 72 89 / 10 50 30 50
TUSCALOOSA 73 94 72 91 / 10 60 40 50
CALERA 71 92 72 90 / 0 50 30 50
AUBURN 72 90 72 86 / 0 40 30 60
MONTGOMERY 73 95 73 92 / 0 30 30 60
TROY 71 94 71 90 / 10 40 30 80
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...89^GSATTERWHITE
AVIATION...89^GSATTERWHITE
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