403
FXUS64 KBMX 272349
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
649 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, REMAINING
CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS A BIG DRIVER IN THE FORECAST
OVER HERE IN ALABAMA, WITH A ~596 DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO. A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST,
CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS AND KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SLIDE IN TO
REPLACE AS THE CURRENT BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. THIS AFTERNOON, WE
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT BOUNDARY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
IN SPOTS TODAY MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. A SIMILAR SITUATION
WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, AS STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG A LINE
FROM SELMA TO ANNISTON TO NE GEORGIA. A LEVEL 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF GEORGIA,
BUT DOES NOT EXTEND INTO ALABAMA WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OF THE ROUTINE SUMMER VARIETY,
AND COULD CAUSE INSTANCES OF MINOR WIND DAMAGE.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES HEAT BACK UP FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S TO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
ARE LOWER THAN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AT THIS POINT, AND THOSE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
12
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
QUITE THE UNCERTAIN FORECAST, FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE, ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GETTING SOME MIXED SIGNALS
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS ON HOW LOW THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL GET TONIGHT. A LOT PROBABLY DEPENDS ON OVERLYING (HIGHER)
CLOUDS COVER. IF THOSE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE, THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAKE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY.
IF NOT, THEN LESS LIKELY. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AL/NORTHWEST FL GULF
COAST. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT LOWER CONDITIONS MAY NOT GET AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN THE TAFS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA,
I DID INCLUDE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT, BUT
LARGELY BACKED OFF ON THE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD START TO LIFT IN THE 14Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME ON FRIDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 91 69 92 / 20 20 10 20
ANNISTON 70 89 69 89 / 30 30 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 71 90 70 91 / 20 20 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 72 93 70 95 / 20 20 10 10
CALERA 71 90 70 92 / 20 30 10 20
AUBURN 72 87 71 86 / 50 60 30 40
MONTGOMERY 72 91 72 92 / 30 50 30 30
TROY 70 88 70 89 / 40 60 30 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION.../61/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page