518
FXUS64 KBMX 280445
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DRIFTING SLOWLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, NORTH WINDS WILL DRAW IN SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT OF THESE
TWO FEATURES, THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. DAILY INSTABILITY
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR APPARENT, NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME -- JUST YOUR STANDARD SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
STORMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN INITIALLY HANDLING
THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE. ULTIMATELY, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
EAST-WEST RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS TO THE CAROLINAS.
THE UPPER LOW THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH, AND ENDS UP DRIFTING WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BECOMING LESS OF A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER. THE
RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS ARE TWOFOLD -- KEEPING DAILY POPS GENERALLY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, AND PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
NOTICEABLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
NOT YET BE DONE FOR THIS SUMMER.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
QUITE THE UNCERTAIN FORECAST, FROM AN AVIATION PERSPECTIVE, ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. GETTING SOME MIXED SIGNALS
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS ON HOW LOW THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL GET TONIGHT. A LOT PROBABLY DEPENDS ON OVERLYING (HIGHER)
CLOUDS COVER. IF THOSE CLOUDS MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE, THEN
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAKE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY.
IF NOT, THEN LESS LIKELY. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AL/NORTHWEST FL GULF
COAST. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT LOWER CONDITIONS MAY NOT GET AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN THE TAFS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA,
I DID INCLUDE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT, BUT
LARGELY BACKED OFF ON THE IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS.
WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD START TO LIFT IN THE 14Z TO
15Z TIME FRAME ON FRIDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 91 68 92 / 10 10 0 20
ANNISTON 70 90 69 90 / 20 10 0 30
BIRMINGHAM 71 90 70 91 / 10 10 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 72 93 70 94 / 10 10 0 10
CALERA 71 91 70 91 / 10 20 0 30
AUBURN 72 86 71 85 / 40 50 20 40
MONTGOMERY 72 92 72 92 / 20 50 10 40
TROY 70 88 69 88 / 40 50 20 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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