431
FXUS64 KBMX 280652
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
152 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
- A HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO RETURN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DRIFTING SLOWLY ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, NORTH WINDS WILL DRAW IN SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT OF THESE
TWO FEATURES, THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. DAILY INSTABILITY
VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR APPARENT, NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME -- JUST YOUR STANDARD SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON
STORMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN INITIALLY HANDLING
THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE. ULTIMATELY, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
EAST-WEST RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS TO THE CAROLINAS.
THE UPPER LOW THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH, AND ENDS UP DRIFTING WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BECOMING LESS OF A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER. THE
RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS ARE TWOFOLD -- KEEPING DAILY POPS GENERALLY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, AND PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
NOTICEABLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
NOT YET BE DONE FOR THIS SUMMER.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A MAJORITY OF TERMINALS ARE STILL OBSERVING VFR CONDITIONS AS OF
06Z. PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING TCL WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVERHEAD. THE OVERALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE
MODERATE CHANCE FOR FALLING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BOTH AT TCL
AND EET, POTENTIALLY IFR CATEGORY BY 10 TO 12Z THIS MORNING. WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND IN SOME CASES RAIN SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, FORECAST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVED AT
MGM AND AUO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A
WINDOW OF LOWER CEILINGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. OBSERVATION AND
SATELLITE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL
AMENDMENTS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR SHRA AND SOME
TSRA NEAR MGM AND AUO DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROB30S WERE ADDED
FOR THOSE TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OR
VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 91 68 92 70 / 10 0 20 10
ANNISTON 90 69 90 70 / 10 0 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 90 70 91 72 / 10 0 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 93 70 94 72 / 10 0 10 0
CALERA 91 70 91 71 / 20 0 30 10
AUBURN 86 71 85 72 / 50 20 40 20
MONTGOMERY 92 72 92 72 / 50 10 40 10
TROY 88 69 88 70 / 50 20 50 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...56/GDG
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