159
FXUS64 KBMX 290543
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1243 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
- A HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO RETURN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS
EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THAT
WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST
COMPUTER MODEL RUNS ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THAT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, LARGELY SHEARING IT OUT AND SCOOTING IT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY, AND THEN ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE BIG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS FROM THE WESTERN STATES TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL PUT A CAP ON MOST CONVECTION IN OUR AREA, AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL BACK UP INTO THE 90S. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAT ADVISORIES IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY STARTING AROUND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
/61/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 06Z.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES OF LOW IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING AT AUO, WHILE MGM WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT MENTION OF
STRATUS OUT OF MGM BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON
OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO 12Z.
MEANWHILE, NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
SPORADICALLY IMPACTING VIS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT NEAR MGM AND AUO DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROB30S WERE
ADDED FOR THOSE SITES FROM 18Z TO 00Z AS A RESULT. VARIABLE OR
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 92 70 92 70 / 10 0 10 0
ANNISTON 90 70 90 70 / 20 10 20 0
BIRMINGHAM 92 72 91 72 / 10 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 95 73 94 73 / 10 10 10 0
CALERA 92 71 91 72 / 20 10 10 0
AUBURN 87 71 87 72 / 30 10 20 10
MONTGOMERY 93 72 93 73 / 30 10 20 10
TROY 90 70 91 71 / 40 10 30 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...56/GDG
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