209
FXUS64 KBMX 291734
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
- A HOTTER AND DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO RETURN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUES
TO BE DEFINED BY A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MEANDERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW IS FACILITATING THE STEADY ADVECTION OF A DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS INFLUX OF LOWER DEWPOINTS IS EFFECTIVELY
LIMITING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, KEEPING THE
FOCUS OF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRICTLY CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT
LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER.
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH. LOOK FOR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO BE BETWEEN I-59 AND I-85 TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE BUILDING OF A BROAD, HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE
WESTERN STATES TOWARD THE EAST, ESTABLISHING A SIGNIFICANT AXIS
STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS BUILDING RIDGE
WILL ACT TO SHEAR OUT THE STUBBORN GULF COAST LOW AND STEER THE
REMAINING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WESTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
AS THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES DOMINANCE OVER THE REGIONAL WEATHER, IT
WILL CREATE A SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSES DAILY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL STILL REMAIN PLAUSIBLE..
WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF RAIN CHANCES TO LEVELS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB BACK
WELL INTO THE 90S. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HEAT AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT
ADVISORIES. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THESE HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY STARTING AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH.
16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED NEAR
MGM, EET, TCL, AND AUO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DRIVEN BY PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%) EXISTS IN VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS MEDIUM; CONSEQUENTLY, PROB30 GROUPS ARE MAINTAINED FOR
THE 18Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT/VARIABLE
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-7 KTS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
16
FIRE WEATHER
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 70 93 71 94 / 20 30 20 10
ANNISTON 70 91 70 93 / 20 40 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 72 92 73 94 / 20 30 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 73 95 74 96 / 20 30 20 10
CALERA 71 92 72 94 / 20 40 20 10
AUBURN 71 89 72 91 / 20 30 20 20
MONTGOMERY 72 95 74 95 / 20 30 20 20
TROY 70 93 71 94 / 20 40 20 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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