722
FXUS64 KBMX 301134
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- A TROPICAL LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES (~20%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK. MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAINTS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PICTURE ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A BIT CLOSER TO HOME, WE CAN SEE A LINGERING H5 VORT MAX
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST, WHICH IS HELPING TO AID
IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CAN BE ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, ABOUT
125 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE NHC CURRENTLY HAS A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHILE MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY, WE WILL SEE LOW (~20%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND SPREADS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. AT
THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS WIND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO AS WE REACH
PEAK HEATING.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO STEER THE TROPICAL LOW TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE GULF. DRIER AIR AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP MAINTAIN
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WE
LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
A WARMING TREND KICKS IN OVER THE COMING DAYS AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS HEAT INDICES SETTLE INTO THE
105-107 DEGREE RANGE.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSEST TO
AUO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF FOR THIS CYCLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 6-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
56/GDG
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 45% OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. LOW (~20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
DAILY, GENERALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 93 71 94 71 / 10 0 10 0
ANNISTON 91 70 92 71 / 10 0 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 92 73 93 73 / 10 0 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 95 74 96 73 / 10 0 10 0
CALERA 92 72 93 72 / 10 0 10 0
AUBURN 89 72 90 73 / 20 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 95 73 95 73 / 20 10 10 10
TROY 92 71 93 71 / 30 10 20 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...56/GDG
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