039
FXUS64 KBMX 310329
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1029 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 BY MID WEEK, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED
STARTING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
- TROPICAL WEATHER: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST, KEEPING LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THIS STOUT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE EXPANDING EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
TO OUR SOUTH, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC HAS
INCREASED DEVELOPMENT CHANCES TO 70% OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
THIS SYSTEM NEARS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA/UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO STEER THE TROPICAL LOW TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE GULF. DRIER AIR AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WE LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
ELEVATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WIND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING.
A WARMING TREND KICKS IN OVER THE COMING DAYS AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MID WEEK. HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-108 RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. DAILY HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THIS WILL PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK
FOR THE REGION. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK DATA SUGGESTS A
50-60% CHANCE OF A MAJOR OR HIGHER HEAT RISK AS WE HEAD INTO
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HEAT SAFETY MESSAGING WILL BE RAMPED UP THROUGH
THE WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR
AUO/MGM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IMPACTS AT EITHER TERMINAL SO OPTED
TO INTRODUCE A SHORT VCSH THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 6-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (~20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
DAILY, GENERALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 71 93 71 95 / 0 10 0 0
ANNISTON 70 92 70 93 / 0 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 73 93 73 95 / 0 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 74 95 74 97 / 0 10 0 10
CALERA 72 93 72 94 / 0 10 0 0
AUBURN 72 91 73 91 / 0 10 0 10
MONTGOMERY 74 95 74 96 / 0 10 0 10
TROY 72 93 72 94 / 0 10 10 10
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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