852
FXUS64 KBMX 012328
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
628 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE CENTER OF THE STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY, WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINING WORKWEEK. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS SUPPRESSED
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE ARE AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TODAY AND TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY REORIENT ITSELF,
ALLOWING FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NW FROM THE
GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN THE INCREASED
HEAT RISK, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AN INCREASED
RISK FOR PEOPLE ON CONCRETE OR ASPHALT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THIS WEEKEND, GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR EVENTS WE EXPECT TO TAKE PLACE FOR THE START OF
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES (20-30%) WILL ALSO RETURN THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REORIENTS ITSELF ONCE AGAIN. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT STORM LOCATIONS IS LOW, AS THIS
ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6-
8 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
95/CASTILLO
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 10
ANNISTON 72 95 73 95 / 0 10 0 20
BIRMINGHAM 75 97 76 96 / 0 10 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 75 99 76 99 / 0 10 10 20
CALERA 74 96 74 96 / 0 10 0 20
AUBURN 74 93 74 93 / 0 10 0 20
MONTGOMERY 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 20
TROY 73 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-
SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...95/CASTILLO
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