316
FXUS64 KBMX 021732
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1232 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EDOUARD CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THAT SAID,
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW (10-20%) CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AS A HEALTHY PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS WIND SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO AS WE
REACH PEAK HEATING. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES
WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
OUR INCREASING HEAT RISK WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S DAILY WITH
HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE 105-108 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
DAILY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WERE NO CHANGES MADE
THIS EVENING REGARDING OUR CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. IT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY
EVENING. WE CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF HYDRATION AND
LIMITING OUTDOOR EXPOSURE TO MITIGATE THE SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
95/CASTILLO
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
WILL MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS AND NIGHTTIME CLEAR SKIES.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW TO ZERO, AND FORESEE NO NEED TO ADD
ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 75 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 73 95 73 93 / 0 0 0 30
BIRMINGHAM 76 96 75 95 / 0 0 0 30
TUSCALOOSA 76 99 76 97 / 0 10 10 30
CALERA 75 96 74 94 / 0 0 0 40
AUBURN 74 93 74 91 / 0 0 0 50
MONTGOMERY 76 97 75 95 / 0 0 10 60
TROY 73 95 73 93 / 0 10 10 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...95/CASTILLO
AVIATION.../61/
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