305
FXUS64 KBMX 021807
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
107 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE HEADLINE EVENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA'S WEATHER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT. UPPER LEVEL HEAT DOME
CENTERED JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GET AIR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING OUT NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS
GOOD. ONE THING TO WATCH IS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO SCOOT WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, WHICH MAY ALSO ALLOW US TO TRIM BACK THE HEAT ADVISORY
AREA. WILL KEEP THE STATUS QUO FOR NOW, AND REEVALUATE THE
ADVISORY IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE IN THE RAINY SCENARIO INCREASES.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE HEADS BACK
TO THE WEST, AND PUTS US BACK INTO A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW POPS TO CLIMB BACK UP TO AT LEAST CLIMO LEVELS,
AND ALSO TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
BACK EASTWARD IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, SUGGESTING THAT
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT MAY NOT QUITE BE OVER FOR US.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
WILL MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS AND NIGHTTIME CLEAR SKIES.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW TO ZERO, AND FORESEE NO NEED TO ADD
ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 75 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 20
ANNISTON 73 95 73 93 / 0 0 0 30
BIRMINGHAM 76 96 75 95 / 0 0 0 30
TUSCALOOSA 76 99 76 97 / 0 10 10 30
CALERA 75 96 74 94 / 0 0 0 40
AUBURN 74 93 74 91 / 0 0 0 50
MONTGOMERY 76 97 75 95 / 0 0 10 60
TROY 73 95 73 93 / 0 10 10 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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