802
FXUS64 KBMX 030537
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1237 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN STEADFAST TO START THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, AS THE CENTER OF IT REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS
RIDGE, AND IN TURN THE HEAT, WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER-90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME, WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON NUMBERS RANGING BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES. THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY BREAK DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE
HERE IS LOW REGARDING THE OVERALL IMPACT TO HEAT INDEX VALUES.
BY SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST,
ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST LOW-END (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT
LIVED, AS A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST
COME TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE BACK
EAST, RETURNING IT TO A LOCATION SIMILAR TO WHERE IT CURRENTLY
RESIDES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND IN THIS SCENARIO,
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAT HEADLINES RUNNING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
/44/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 97 74 96 73 / 10 0 10 0
ANNISTON 95 73 94 72 / 10 0 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 96 75 95 75 / 10 0 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 98 76 97 74 / 10 10 20 10
CALERA 96 74 94 73 / 10 0 20 10
AUBURN 93 74 91 74 / 10 0 40 20
MONTGOMERY 97 75 95 74 / 10 0 50 20
TROY 96 73 93 72 / 10 10 70 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
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