969
FXUS64 KBMX 032355
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
105-108 EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE BIG STORY FOR OUR WEATHER, HELPING
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP IN THE HEAT
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THEN
"PENDULUM" BACK TO THE EAST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEETING
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA IS LOWER BEYOND SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE
WAIT ON EXTENDING THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY BEYOND IT CURRENTLY
PLANNED SATURDAY EXPIRATION. BUT WE MAY NEED TO EITHER EXTEND IT,
OR ISSUE ANOTHER ONE NEXT WEEK BASED. OTHERWISE, BEST RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA, LARGELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STOUT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH WILL KEEP TERMINALS IN VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND MGM AND AUO, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE TSRA IN ANY FM GROUPS AT THIS
TIME.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 97 74 97 / 10 0 0 20
ANNISTON 73 94 72 94 / 10 10 0 30
BIRMINGHAM 75 95 75 95 / 10 10 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 76 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 30
CALERA 74 95 74 94 / 0 10 10 30
AUBURN 74 92 74 92 / 0 20 10 50
MONTGOMERY 75 96 74 95 / 0 20 20 50
TROY 73 94 72 93 / 0 40 20 60
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../44/
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