821
FXUS64 KBMX 040449
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 105-108
DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO REAL END IN SIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT RELIEF THIS WEEKEND, AS THE APEX OF THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS WEST, ALLOWING A DISTURBANCE ALONG
THE GULF TO SLIDE NORTH. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RELIEF IS LIMITED,
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND REMAINING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED AND SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST, SHIFTING THE RIDGE RIGHT BACK OVER TOP
OF US. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND, CLIMBING RIGHT
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER-90S. HOWEVER, GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINT VALUES, CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES DURING THIS TIME IS LOW. REGARDLESS, IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAT IS HERE TO STAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STOUT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH WILL KEEP TERMINALS IN VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND MGM AND AUO, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE TSRA IN ANY FM GROUPS AT THIS
TIME.
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR AUO DUE TO A WEATHER OBSERVATION
OUTAGE.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 97 74 97 / 0 10 0 20
ANNISTON 73 94 72 94 / 0 20 0 30
BIRMINGHAM 75 95 75 96 / 0 20 0 20
TUSCALOOSA 76 98 75 97 / 0 20 10 20
CALERA 74 95 74 95 / 0 20 10 20
AUBURN 74 91 74 91 / 0 20 10 40
MONTGOMERY 75 96 74 95 / 0 20 20 60
TROY 73 93 72 93 / 0 30 20 70
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/
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