680
FXUS64 KBMX 041751
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 105-108
DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO REAL END IN SIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT RELIEF THIS WEEKEND, AS THE APEX OF THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS WEST, ALLOWING A DISTURBANCE ALONG
THE GULF TO SLIDE NORTH. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RELIEF IS LIMITED,
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND REMAINING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED AND SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST, SHIFTING THE RIDGE RIGHT BACK OVER TOP
OF US. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND, CLIMBING RIGHT
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER-90S. HOWEVER, GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINT VALUES, CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES DURING THIS TIME IS LOW. REGARDLESS, IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAT IS HERE TO STAY.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS. A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT MGM AND AUO. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT FROM THIS
MORNING INDICATES SOME CHANCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN MANY/MOST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE MORE DEFINITIVE THAN OTHERS,
WITH A PRETTY SOLID STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING BELOW 1000 FT. OTHERS
ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC, WITH JUST SOME LIGHT BR AND ONLY A BRIEF
(AT MOST) PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS. DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE,
AND GO WITH A MORE DEFINED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT NOT QUITE AS
LOW OF A CEILING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IS AUO,
LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT BHM.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF
FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 98 74 99 / 0 20 20 10
ANNISTON 72 96 72 97 / 0 20 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 97 75 98 / 0 20 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 75 99 75 100 / 0 20 10 10
CALERA 74 96 74 97 / 0 20 10 20
AUBURN 74 93 74 94 / 0 20 10 30
MONTGOMERY 74 95 74 97 / 10 30 10 30
TROY 72 93 72 95 / 10 50 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../61/
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