701
FXUS64 KBMX 041849
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
149 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 105-108
DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
GETTING MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT IN FINDING DIFFERENT WAYS TO SAY
"IT'S HOT, AND MORE HOT THAN TYPICAL." UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
OSCILLATE FROM EAST TO WEST TO EAST AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 105. RAIN CHANCES WILL EDGE UP OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE
RIDGE INITIALLY SLIDES WESTWARD. BUT AS THE RIDGE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED IN THE EAST, CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME
SUPPRESSED ONCE AGAIN.
/61/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS. A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT MGM AND AUO. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT FROM THIS
MORNING INDICATES SOME CHANCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN MANY/MOST
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE MORE DEFINITIVE THAN OTHERS,
WITH A PRETTY SOLID STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING BELOW 1000 FT. OTHERS
ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC, WITH JUST SOME LIGHT BR AND ONLY A BRIEF
(AT MOST) PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS. DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE,
AND GO WITH A MORE DEFINED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT NOT QUITE AS
LOW OF A CEILING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IS AUO,
LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT BHM.
/61/
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT
DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY
NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 98 74 99 / 0 20 20 10
ANNISTON 72 96 72 97 / 0 20 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 97 75 98 / 0 20 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 75 99 75 100 / 0 20 10 10
CALERA 74 96 74 97 / 0 20 10 20
AUBURN 74 93 74 94 / 0 20 10 30
MONTGOMERY 74 95 74 97 / 10 30 10 30
TROY 72 93 72 95 / 10 50 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/
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