636
FXUS64 KBMX 042358
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
658 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 105-108
DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
IT'S GETTING MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT IN FINDING DIFFERENT WAYS TO
SAY "IT`S HOT, AND MORE HOT THAN TYPICAL." THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL OSCILLATE FROM EAST TO WEST TO EAST AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 95 TO 100
DEGREE RANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 105. RAIN CHANCES WILL EDGE UP OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE
RIDGE INITIALLY SLIDES WESTWARD. BUT AS THE RIDGE BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED IN THE EAST, CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME
SUPPRESSED ONCE AGAIN.
/61/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING ACROSS ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON STILL INDICATES SOME CHANCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MANY/MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE, BUT HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE
PLACEMENT. SOME MODELS ARE MORE DEFINITIVE THAN OTHERS, WITH A
PRETTY SOLID STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING BELOW 1000 FEET AT LEAST IN
THE SOUTH. OTHERS ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC, WITH JUST SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ONLY A BRIEF (AT MOST) PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS. REDEFINED AND
RE-ALIGNED THE PLACEMENT, BUT THE OVERALL STORY REMAINS THE SAME.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IS AUO, LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT
BHM.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE DAILY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
CURRENTLY LOW, BUT DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE
THESE CONCERNS BY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 98 74 99 / 10 20 20 10
ANNISTON 72 96 72 97 / 0 20 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 75 97 75 98 / 10 20 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 75 99 75 100 / 10 20 10 10
CALERA 74 96 74 97 / 10 20 10 20
AUBURN 74 93 74 94 / 10 20 10 30
MONTGOMERY 74 95 74 97 / 10 30 10 30
TROY 72 93 72 95 / 10 50 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION...16
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