780
FXUS64 KBMX 050443
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 105-108
DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
- STORMS SUNDAY: STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OSCILLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST TO EAST AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105. RAIN CHANCES
WILL EDGE UP OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY SLIDES
WESTWARD.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 9 AM AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM SOUTH OF I-85. MOVING NORTHWARD, SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN I-85 AND THE LIVINGSTON TO
ALEXANDER CITY LINE FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM, FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY FROM
TUSCALOOSA TO SYLACAUGA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7 PM, AND FINALLY FROM
JASPER TO TALLADEGA BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-85 THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY PRECEDE THESE WINDOWS BY
ROUGHLY AN HOUR, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE CONCENTRATED
WITHIN THESE PERIODS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS. ON SUNDAY, THE BOUNDARY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST; WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING ACROSS ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA TAF LOCATIONS. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON STILL INDICATES SOME CHANCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MANY/MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE, BUT HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE
PLACEMENT. SOME MODELS ARE MORE DEFINITIVE THAN OTHERS, WITH A
PRETTY SOLID STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING BELOW 1000 FEET AT LEAST IN
THE SOUTH. OTHERS ARE NOT AS PESSIMISTIC, WITH JUST SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ONLY A BRIEF (AT MOST) PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS. REDEFINED AND
RE-ALIGNED THE PLACEMENT, BUT THE OVERALL STORY REMAINS THE SAME.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IS AUO, LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT
BHM.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 60%) CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST DAILY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF
FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 74 99 74 98 / 0 20 20 10
ANNISTON 72 96 72 97 / 0 20 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 75 98 75 98 / 0 20 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 75 98 75 101 / 0 30 20 20
CALERA 74 95 74 98 / 0 30 20 20
AUBURN 74 91 74 95 / 10 40 10 30
MONTGOMERY 74 91 74 98 / 20 50 10 30
TROY 72 89 72 96 / 20 60 10 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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