184
FXUS64 KBMX 051016
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100-108
DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
8 PM SUNDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY: THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OSCILLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST TO EAST AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105. RAIN CHANCES
WILL EDGE UP OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE RIDGE INITIALLY SLIDES
WESTWARD.
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 9 AM AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM SOUTH OF I-85. MOVING NORTHWARD, SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN I-85 AND THE LIVINGSTON TO
ALEXANDER CITY LINE FROM 12 PM TO 5 PM, FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY FROM
TUSCALOOSA TO SYLACAUGA BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7 PM, AND FINALLY FROM
JASPER TO TALLADEGA BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-85 THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY PRECEDE THESE WINDOWS BY
ROUGHLY AN HOUR, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE CONCENTRATED
WITHIN THESE PERIODS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS. ON SUNDAY, THE BOUNDARY
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST; WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL SITES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WARRANTS A PROB30 AT ALL SITES FOR 6 HOURS BEGINNING AT 18Z.
87/GRANTHAM
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 60%) CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST DAILY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF
FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 99 74 98 72 / 20 20 10 10
ANNISTON 96 72 97 71 / 20 20 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 98 75 98 74 / 20 20 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 98 75 101 73 / 40 20 20 10
CALERA 95 74 98 72 / 30 20 20 10
AUBURN 91 74 95 73 / 40 10 30 40
MONTGOMERY 91 74 98 73 / 40 10 30 30
TROY 89 72 96 71 / 70 10 40 40
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...87/GRANTHAM
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