507
FXUS64 KBMX 052031
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
- STORMS SUNDAY: THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WAS
PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE GULF. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW SINCE THIS
MORNING, BUT IS MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWER THIS MORNING WITH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY, BUT ARE WARMING UP
POST CONVECTION. ONE MORE DAY OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH/ NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS A
LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS MORE OF CONUS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BREAK
DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY MID WEEK AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OUT OF CANADA. TOWARD
LATE WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US.
WILL FORGO EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TO GET TEMPERATURES DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
WITH THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE HOT, JUST MAYBE RIGHT BELOW WHAT
WE NORMALLY SEE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
08
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF CONVECTION AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO AS LATE AS EARLY EVENING FOR SOME.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT MGM/AUO/TCL WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
AT EET/BHM. ALSO, ISOLATED OFF/ON CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT,
BUT WILL BE HARDER TO PINPOINT FOR TAF SITES. SOME LOW STATUS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 9Z AND PAST SUNRISE AT MGM WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAINS.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND AT EET DUE TO ISSUES WITH THE
VISIBILITY SENSOR.
08
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 60%) CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TODAY. LOW (10 TO 30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST DAILY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY LOW, BUT DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RAISE THESE CONCERNS BY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF
FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 73 98 72 91 / 20 20 10 20
ANNISTON 72 96 71 90 / 20 20 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 75 97 73 93 / 20 20 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 74 101 74 98 / 20 30 20 20
CALERA 73 97 73 93 / 20 30 20 20
AUBURN 74 95 73 88 / 20 40 20 30
MONTGOMERY 73 97 73 95 / 20 50 20 20
TROY 72 96 72 93 / 20 50 30 30
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-
HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-
TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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