613
FXUS64 KBMX 060510
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1210 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT RISK: MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
AT MIDNIGHT, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MAINTAINING WEAK NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE GULF.
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER HAS LEFT SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT USHERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY
INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT, RANGING FROM ROBUST COVERAGE TO MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10
HOURS WILL BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH LINGERING HEAT, ANY CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING, GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION,
WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WE WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR
ANY TRAINING OR REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREAS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE
RIDGE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY MID-
WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OUT OF CANADA. TOWARD LATE WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD HELP PUSH ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AND INTRODUCE DRIER AIR. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HOT, THEY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA, WITH
INCREASING ACTIVITY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (15-20%) THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT EET, BHM, OR TCL BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGH
10Z, WITH AMENDMENTS ISSUED IF TRENDS INCREASE. TO THE SOUTH, LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z, PRIMARILY AT MGM.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR AUO DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM
EARLIER RAINFALL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST FOR SOUTHERN IMPACTS AT AUO AND MGM, WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AT EET AND TCL.
NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD AND WIND AT EET DUE TO AN INOPERATIVE
VISIBILITY SENSOR.
16
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40% INTO NEXT WEEK.
LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 50%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
PRESENT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TODAY.
LOW (10 TO 30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST DAILY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY
LOW, BUT DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RAISE THESE
CONCERNS BY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A LACK OF FORECAST RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GADSDEN 98 72 91 70 / 20 10 20 0
ANNISTON 96 71 90 71 / 20 20 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 98 74 93 72 / 20 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 101 74 98 74 / 30 10 10 10
CALERA 98 73 94 72 / 30 20 20 10
AUBURN 95 72 89 71 / 40 40 40 20
MONTGOMERY 97 73 95 73 / 40 20 30 20
TROY 96 72 94 71 / 40 30 50 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-
CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-
FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST.
CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16
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